• rustyfish@lemmy.worldEnglish
    157·
    3 months ago

    It’s the year 2031. NATO troops surrounded the Cremlin after a weekend of mostly chill driving through the Russian countryside. Picking up defectors here and there.

    Russia still threatens with war if they don’t stop.

    Everybody laughs. Love is in the air. Good times.

    • soggy_kitty@sopuli.xyzEnglish
      24·
      3 months ago

      I know you’re joking, and I’m sorry to ruin the dream but to be clear nuclear fallout would be in the air and there won’t be laughing as several millions would die before that moment.

      I really don’t like the glorification of war

      • Kit Sorens@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
        30·
        3 months ago

        Question: We’ve seen sand-filled missiles due to corruption and cronyism, and they were actually transfered to the front line expecting to be live munitions. How many Russian ICBMs do you think are truly functional between the “new” ones and the 70yo cold war hulks?

        To be clear, I don’t revel in the idea of a war between the Ruskies and NATO, but Putin is certain to be wondering this, too. How effective are his strategic assets, truly? I’m sure the CIA has figured that out and is guiding US response on that intel. They know exactly how far an insecure dictator can be pushed.

          • Echo Dot@feddit.ukEnglish
            12·
            3 months ago

            Yeah and what would that do. Sure a lot of people would die but it won’t help Russia win the war. If they shoot their load and they destroyed say two cities, then everyone else will know that’s it. Launching the missiles would be literally the last thing that they ever do. Mutually assured destruction not required.

            The best way to survive is to constantly threaten but never actually act. Eventually someone will do something about putting oil just die of old age. There isn’t really a way there’s ends with him being victorious.

            • soggy_kitty@sopuli.xyzEnglish
              2·
              3 months ago

              Anyone firing nukes at any other country would undoubtedly be devastating to the aggressor, even putler isn’t that stupid.

              Personally I can’t believe how he hasn’t been JFK’d yet.

              • skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish
                3·
                3 months ago

                Anyone firing nukes at any other country would undoubtedly be devastating to the aggressor, even putler isn’t that stupid

                yeah, that’s the exact reason why you shouldn’t worry about nuclear war in any case

                Personally I can’t believe how he hasn’t been JFK’d yet.

                that’s because you don’t understand how politically apathetic russians are

              • Echo Dot@feddit.ukEnglish
                1·
                3 months ago

                I suspect the reason that is because the sanctions haven’t really bitten home yet and no one really wants to inherit this nebulous mess where Russia’s position with NATO is not well understood, much better to wait and let him to out and out fail, then when they take power the only possible way is up.

        • soggy_kitty@sopuli.xyzEnglish
          1·
          3 months ago

          Ok so I can finally reply to your question after days of appealing my permanent ban to noncredibledefense for my comment above. (Apparently it was too pro-russia and spreading false information)

          Secondly you’re right, I don’t think anyone knows how many are truly functional, the US and Russia have the best ideas but both of those nations are rightfully very secretive about the true nature of the nukes.

          I believe that if US truly believed the russian nuclear arsenal was a zero threat they would have already put troops in Ukraine. That’s mostly the reason why my opinion is that Russia has at least one likely operational nuclear device which could cause damage to the European continent.

          Secondly risk is calculated by two factors, chance and effect.

          As a European myself, the effect of russian nukes on Europe terrifies me because I live in a major city that would be a target if Russia ever went scorched earth. Although the chance is low the effect is high which puts the overall risk above zero which is too much especially with the majority of NATO residing in that continent.

          • nuke@sh.itjust.worksMEnglish
            3·
            3 months ago

            “I know you’re joking, and I’m sorry to ruin the dream but to be clear nuclear fallout would be in the air and there won’t be laughing as several millions would die before that moment.”

            “European families, is our life ruined now?”

            “As a European myself, the effect of russian nukes on Europe terrifies me”

            Sorry, we don’t allow Russian fear mongering in NCD.

          • skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish
            2·
            3 months ago

            ono russia has nukes, that’s scary, russia has nukes and they might even work, we have to stop all military aid because that would be eScAlaTiOn. have you seen these “new” “secret” documents, they say that sending 32 abrams is nuclear threshold, we are so lucky

            i don’t care if you are true believer or an useful idiot, if you’re repeating hottest vatnik twitter talking points you are in a wrong place

            honestly perun should be mandatory watching in this sub. this one in this case. maybe you have noticed that some western weapons sent earlier had a restriction that they couldn’t be used in russian 1991 borders. well as it happens F16 and any weapons mounted on them don’t have this restriction, which means that countries that sent them don’t think any of russian “red lines” around military aid are credible. putin doesn’t even want to escalate conventionally as it stands now because it would be unpopular domestically

            having some vague nuclear threshold doesn’t make your position credible and makes diplomacy harder. nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike on an ally, that’s a clear one. nuclear strike in response to disabling nuclear second strike capability, like C2, in nuclear way or not, this is also a clear one. “existence of a state is threatened” you’d expect this in some kind of total war, and we’re nowhere close to it. military aid is not it, screeching at top of your lungs that you’ll nuke london after atacms is delivered then doing nothing does not make your position credible. nukes are first of all tools of diplomacy and the right way to use them is in deterrence, this does not make a lot of sense if you want to be taken seriously

      • BastingChemina@slrpnk.netEnglish
        19·
        3 months ago

        Millions will die from the nuclear fallout and billions will starve from the following nuclear winter.

        Nuclear war is terrifying

        • frezik@midwest.socialEnglish
          15·
          3 months ago

          There’s a very good chance of that, but the consequences of being wrong are too high.

          That said, there is an I-know-that-they-know-that-I-know game involved. We might not be able to chance Russians nukes working, but Putin has to be wondering if they work, too. If he launches one and it fizzles, the whole world will cheer NATO on while obliterate Putin’s regime in a conventional war. Therefore, he has all the more reasons to not launch them preemptively and let the question hang in the air.

        • dangblingus@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
          7·
          3 months ago

          I don’t know if I would bet the extinction of all life on Earth save for the most resilient bacteria on that assumption.

          Suppose that through the Russian government’s kleptocracy, that after they spent billions on mansions and stolen exotic cars, that they put the rest into maintaining their nuclear arsenal.

    • Tar_Alcaran@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
      53·
      3 months ago

      I suggest a slight modification on the Prigozhin plan.

      Step 1: Hop on whatever vehicle you can find

      Step 2: Casually drive to Moscow

      Step 3 (Modified): Do NOT take Putin’s bribe.

      Step 4: Make sure you don’t have to carry too much ammo back

      Step 5: We did it!

    • frezik@midwest.socialEnglish
      50·
      3 months ago

      I’ll copy and paste a bit I did in reply to a Russiabot for kicking Russia out of the Ukraine.

      We tell Poland “Hulk? Smash.” and they rush across the border and reinforce Ukrainian positions. A US carrier group rolls up and sinks what remains of the Black Sea Fleet before the Admiral can get a second cup of coffee. Marines start landing in Sevastopol and the obligatory McDonalds is setup within 36 hours. F-22s body the Russian air force without even being seen; not because of stealth, but because Russians ain’t got radar no more. The Kerch Strait Bridge isn’t just bombed, but completely taken out from end to end. What remains of Russian ground positions west of Mariupol is full of soldiers who hear rumors that NATO POW camps will give you hot food and a warm blanket, and that’s sounding like a damn good deal by the end of the week.

      • Buddahriffic@lemmy.worldEnglish
        24·
        3 months ago

        Also cut off Belarus from any Russian support and let the people there do their thing. Bomb the railway connections between Russia and China, add a blockade between Russia and Iran.

        And instead of just using McDonald’s on the frontline, add some A&Ws and really win some hearts and minds.

          • vaultdweller013@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
            7·
            3 months ago

            Lets skip the five guys and create the first international In-N-Out. Itd be funny if the Ukrainians get one before the Mexicans or Canadians.

            • mojofrododojo@lemmy.worldEnglish
              2·
              3 months ago

              Idk, enshittification even came for Five Guys in the end.

              they fucked up 5guys? haven’t been in a while, what happened?

              • DragonTypeWyvern@literature.cafeEnglish
                2·
                3 months ago

                A basic combo is well over $20 now. If they had the best damn burgers you can get it’d be one thing but the quality of the meat has gone down as well.

                Any real burger joint crushes them on quality and price now, but that’s how enshittification works, right? Build the brand with a good product, then decrease quality and jack up prices.

                All I’m willing to give them is they don’t season their patties, so it’s a relatively good place to go if you’re restricted on sodium or prefer a pure meat flavor but the reality is the best burgers are seasoned. That’s just how flavor works.

        • frezik@midwest.socialEnglish
          8·
          3 months ago

          50/50 chance Russian nukes just plain don’t work.

          No matter if they do or not, beeline direct to Moscow, St Petersburg, Murmansk, and blockade the Kaliningrad exclave. Also, Russian troops elsewhere in the world, such as in Africa, are now big fat targets. NATO has a lot of non-nuclear response options here, and even nominal Russian allies like China won’t lodge a complaint once the nuclear taboo is broken.

    • Diplomjodler@feddit.deEnglish
      36·
      3 months ago

      Day one: Russian air force gets taken out by NATO air strikes.

      Day two: remaining heavy weapons are mopped up by NATO air strikes.

      Day three to one hundred: Russian meat waves get mowed down by NATO air strikes and artillery.

      Day one hundred and one: Putin tries to launch nuclear attack, fails.

    • mojofrododojo@lemmy.worldEnglish
      31·
      3 months ago

      China.

      Hear me out: Treaty of Aigun established Vladivostok on what was Chinese land - Yongmingcheng, where the russians built a western city/port for their pacific fleet. And the russian ‘east’; there’s a fantastic stretch of land that’s going to become quite livable due to climate change while china experiences a series of frustrations - inability to separate Taiwan from the west’s interference, inability to execute the 9-dash line’s ambitions to control the south china sea, and unity in the Australia-Indonesia-Philippines resistance to Chinese influence - why continue to waste resources where there’s nothing but resistence?

      Look north. Russia doesn’t have the best army in the Donbas lol, when supplied the Ukrainians are tearing them to shreds - far more lost there than Afghanistan and Chechnya - mind boggling losses. Will the Russians really be able to stand up to a peer army?

      And no one would twitch. Who’s going to jump to Russia’s aid?

      Seems like a win.

      • Buddahriffic@lemmy.worldEnglish
        5·
        3 months ago

        I don’t think they will act directly against each other until they’ve dealt with the west. One attacking the other directly would just cement western dominance.

      • AngryCommieKender@lemmy.worldEnglish
        3·
        3 months ago

        Been saying that for months. There’s enough of a Han population in Vladivostok for Xi to say it’s a “special military operation,” protecting native Chinese. It’d be a heck of a political coup for Xi, because he could have an easy military victory, and redirect attention from Taiwan. Also gives them a port outside of the first chain of islands that have cut them off from everything but the East China Sea

        • mojofrododojo@lemmy.worldEnglish
          2·
          3 months ago

          csto

          it would be hilarious if Ru asked… imho the stan clan + armenia really don’t owe all that much to Ru, and putin in particular…

          something tells me China + Ukraine forcing a 2 front conflict on Russia would outweigh anything the CSTO could bring to bear quickly.

    • NoLifeKing@ani.socialEnglish
      13·
      3 months ago

      Special forces find putin and put a nuke in his asshole, then he goes to see his government buddies and kaboom.

      • jobby@lemmy.todayEnglish
        4·
        3 months ago

        I think just a big wood chipper followed by a mobile reggae sound system bumping up the highway slowly, passing out food, medical supplies and weed to the inhabitants as they go past. Followed an hour later by ANOTHER sound system and several clearly branded flatbed trucks, with happy smiling people throwing candy and chocolate off the back to the re-assembled crowd.

        Ain’t nobody stopping that parade.

          • gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
            7·
            3 months ago

            Before I discovered Kirkland, I would have agreed with you.

            Kirkland is genuinely just as good, except a handle (1.75L) costs roughly as much as a normal Tito’s bottle (750ml).

            • meep_launcher@lemm.eeEnglish
              12·
              3 months ago

              I was born in Kirkland. My mom drank only the finest Vodka during pregnancy. Kirkland Vodka made my IQ 180, gave me a chiseled chin, and I give earth shattering orgasms when I shake hands.

            • Grass@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
              1·
              3 months ago

              Can you get Kirkland vodka in Canada? I’ve seen Tito’s before but haven’t tried it.

                • Grass@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
                  1·
                  3 months ago

                  There are Costco’s but I haven’t seen any with alcohol sections. Actually we probably just don’t have grocery and alcohol in the same store it’s probably been the times I’ve been in the states melding in my ancient mostly forgotten memories.

      • P03 Locke@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
        1·
        3 months ago

        Vodka is the easiest goddamn spirit to turn into a high-tier brand. There is barely any flavor to Vodka, and even an expert could not tell the difference between a $150 bottle of vodka and a $30 bottle in a blind taste test.

    • xenoclast@lemmy.worldEnglish
      6·
      3 months ago

      Tell Republicans that Gay Russians are having IVF just so they can get abortions at the free medical clinic.

  • Rubanski@lemm.eeEnglish
    33·
    3 months ago

    I am quite curious if Japan will take back their Kuril Islands in case of war. Russia already pulled their equipment from the islands. I was surprised to find out that Japan and Russia (or better the USSR) never really signed a peace treaty after WWII. So it seems technically they are still at war

  • Hotzilla@sopuli.xyzEnglish
    31·
    3 months ago

    Russian foreign policy equals to domestic policy. They always bark outside when they have domestic issues, like people revolting against Putin. It is getting bit jarring to shift blame to NATO, and it is surprising that it works to any Russians.