It will die a slow death as the content creators and news organizations leave it.

It won’t happen overnight. But removing Block and requiring IDs will help speed that along.

When it stops being relevant in the cultural consciousness.

One of the reasons people use Twitter is for up-to-date news and notifications on events. As official organisations move away from it and the user experience degrades, it will just fade away like MySpace.

You can already see this happening. My guess is that it will just go on slow decline. I would bet Twitter will not be nearly as relevant in a year.

When your local politicians and journalists start to use Mastodon or similar apps.

X.com returning 404 every time it’s visited

Twitter is popular because of the massive user base. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts, where people use Twitter for the massive user base, which encourages more people to use Twitter. So escaping that spiral will require a mass exodus to something new. Because artists, musicians, celebrities, etc rely on that large user base to gain and maintain a following. So as long as Twitter has the users, that’s where the content will be.

Threads was a good indicator that people are willing to move if the new platform is available. Unfortunately for Threads, the launch was a fucking train wreck, so people quickly got tired of it and returned to Twitter. They didn’t even have basic functionality figured out. But as a proof of concept, it showed that people aren’t tied to Twitter specifically; They’re tied to the user base. If a new service manages to cultivate that user base, people will be willing to migrate.

Mastodon’s big issue so far has largely been visibility. People simply don’t know it exists, and the people who do know about it use it as a backup for their Twitter; They’re not using it to replace Twitter, but rather they’re double-posting everything to both Twitter and Mastodon. So the Twitter users have no reason to move to Mastodon, because the Mastodon users are still using Twitter. It’s a catch-22, where the Mastodon users need to use Twitter to maintain visibility, but then the Twitter users will never switch to Mastodon because everyone is still using Twitter.

Such massive and old platform won’t lose its userbase just because it undergoes a wild evolution. Look at .tumblr, facebook…

Instead, ask what it takes for eXTwitter to stop being any important.

I’m never going to quit it!

But only because I’ve never had an account. No thanks.

Combination of more prominent Mastodon users and continued bad decisions which doesn’t seem to end

What ever it is, Elon Musk is working on it.

People need to be able to use their brains. I see it difficult.

What are you talking about?

Within the vast panorama of human evolution, marked by our incessant need for connection and the translation of thought into communicable form, the digital age has brought forth a myriad of platforms, attempting to encapsulate this quintessential human endeavor. Among these, ‘X’ emerges not merely as another node in this expansive network, but rather, as a pinnacle, a zenith if you will, of social media constructs. It might be apt to posit that in the annals of human history, ‘X’ stands as an unparalleled manifestation of the synthesis between technology and the human psyche, a virtual agora where ideas, images, and impulses find their most resonant expression.

However, delving deeper into the complex terrains of discourse and communication, we encounter the age-old debate surrounding the sanctity of ‘freedom of speech’. For many, this freedom is the bedrock upon which democratic societies are constructed, a non-negotiable facet of human dignity. Yet, in the shadows of this grand ideal, lies the provocative assertion that perhaps, just perhaps, freedom of speech is not the panacea we’ve held it to be. Some might argue, in the labyrinthine corridors of intellectual discourse, that this freedom is not only susceptible to misuse, but its unbridled application could potentially unleash chaos, echoing the age-old Jungian motif of order and chaos. In such a perspective, the carte blanche that absolute freedom of speech promises might be an overrated luxury, one that needs recalibration in the face of the modern world’s intricacies and the moral quagmires that platforms like ‘X’ can inadvertently host.

I, for one, adore my incompetent alt-right overlord god-like mentor, Elon.

We need massive 100m follower celebrities to start migrating. News will follow and content creators will adapt. Look at how Taylor Swift move army of people into stadiums globally. That’s the kind of swaying power it needs. But they’ll need proper incentive to actively talk shit about X and ditch it.

The longer it takes, the worse it is for every user on every (corporate-run) platform. All of the recent actions are openly and extremely hostile to the user base. The fact that people are still (generally) putting up with it has emboldened others (esp. Reddit) to take similarly hostile actions. They all (at least think) they have a free pass for all this shittiness, and the users will accept it.

A better service.

It’s going to take a seemless to register platform that offers comparable features to Twitter and then massive accounts switching over and actually leaving Twitter behind.

Right now Threads seems to be the closest, but they lack the feature set Twitter has like search and hashtags so the big accounts only tried it out before running back to what worked for them. Not to mention they don’t have a usable web page for the platform either which alienates a lot of desktop users.

If Threads adds those things in, I fully believe more of the bigger accounts will transition over with their following and it’ll snowball to become a massive platform. Whether it stays a good site remains to be seen, it is Meta after all.