Prediction: The poll will not attempt to select for likely voters. It will simply look at all poll respondents.
Prediction: If I look at the actual results of a handful of the most recent downballot elections (special elections and other weird situations where we can actually find out whether the Democrats or the Republicans won), I will find at least a 2-to-1 majority of good news for the Democrats over the other kind
I’m actually in favor of the idea of taking the November election extremely seriously because Biden has some problems and it’s not at all assured that Trump won’t win and that would be a fuckin catastrophe for many different reasons. But I think misinformation in service of that goal, or attempts to represent support for Trump as “the will of the people,” isn’t a good thing.
BRB, checking my predictions
Edit: WTF, it’s even worse than my prediction. They’re constructing an elaborate Frankenstein’s monster of narratives out of individual data points from black voters of various age groupings, and their enthusiasm about politics in general, throwing in a quick little word about Gaza in there, without even pretending that they’re trying to answer the question “what’s the likely result in November, overall?”. Sorta reminds me of this comic.
They don’t even bother to attempt to say that the “downballot” thing from the headline has any connection to the poll, except in the very last paragraph where they throw in another weird little unproven narrative.
Edit: Okay, so to address the other half of my predictions – Democrats won 80% of the recent special elections, including a seat in Virginia where the D guy won by 50 percentage points. I could spin up a whole narrative from that, go into all these details about Trump’s criminal trials and kneecapping the RNC, and Biden’s wins on the economy, and sort of pretend that the picture I’m painting corresponds to a prediction about downballot races in November, and it wouldn’t mean a damn thing any more than this article does. It’s just argument by anecdote.
(Actually, it arguably would be a lot more valid than this article… but still argument by anecdote. Certainly, there’s reason to worry about November. This article isn’t it.)
OP doesn’t care. OP is here to push a narrative, nuance be damned.
Absolutely yes. And, continues to push some of their narratives regardless of how many times it’s demonstrated that they’re not accurate (and doesn’t seem to have much interest in even having the discussion of whether they’re accurate).
I think most of the troll farms have a certain quota of how many stories / comments you’re supposed to post per day, which seems to me like a pretty good explanation for the constant flood of slanted-in-one-particular-way stories that come out of OP. But who knows, maybe he’s just super passionate about posting political stuff but super uninterested in analyzing political stuff. You know, like most perfectly ordinary organic politics-posting people are.
Maybe you should be a mod and just delete all posts criticizing Biden? Would that be better for the sub?
It would be better for the sub if people were posting and debating in good faith. You refuse to do so, that’s the problem. No one is against criticism of Biden, they’re against bad faith attempts to criticize Biden and push a both sides narrative. You know all this, which is why you constantly deflect and change your story (remember “I just post what’s available and all the pro Biden articles are already posted by you guys so it’s just negative stuff leftover” from a couple months ago?).
You’re just wasting people’s time and won’t even have the courage to admit it. It should be called out repeatedly.
If anyone is wasting your time it’s you.
That’s definitely possible. My hope is that others will see your bullshit called out and continue to discount the propaganda you guys are pushing. You guys are instantly down voted into oblivion so it seems to be effective. It shouldn’t be necessary, but you guys aren’t going to stop yourselves. Useful idiot, troll, foreign agent, I don’t really care. I needs to be fought.
Because you brought it up, I dusted off and did a little more tweaking on my pet project to make an LLM moderator that tries to detect bad-faith arguments regardless of viewpoint or overt-politeness level. I talked about it before. I’m moderately happy with how it’s able to function now.
Previous versions I hadn’t been happy with, but I just turned the current version loose on your user to see what it came up with, and it identified this thread and this thread as places where someone was very clearly saying one thing, and your responses were managing to engage in an argument with them without addressing the thing that they actually were saying… kind of like you did just now, when even a not-at-all sophisticated reader should be able to tell the massive difference between what I said, and “criticism of Biden should be banned,” and take note of the fact that you’re claiming I was saying the second thing, and so maybe don’t belong in a community that’s more for productive honest engagement even among contrasting views.
IDK, I can’t really make it live until I figure out how to do an mbin bot that can do moderation. But I think the hard part is working well enough to actually test it out for real once the bot piece can get done. So yes you might get your wish. 🙂
I’m not here to argue. I’m here to post and create discussion. Again, downvote if you don’t like the post. That’s what it’s there for.
Anyone can do what I do. I don’t write the articles. I just share them.
I literally couldn’t have said it better than this comment which I accidentally ran across while tweaking the LLM thing
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
You can block me if it really bothers you.
Maybe you should make your own community where you can share this bullshit with anyone dumb enough to take it seriously and stop plastering the walls here with it.
Maybe you should ask stupid fucking questions just to taunt people? Grow the fuck up and quit being a fucking troll.
Mods - Ban them or ban me - I don’t give a fuck and if you ban me then it’s obvious that you don’t give a fuck either.
This is the kind of comment that restores my faith in humanity
Yeah? Is it biased press spinning 1000 reasons why Biden is bad and losing to a felonious, pussy-grabbing, treason-weasel? Could that be it?
It’s absolutely bias. This dude does nothing but spread propaganda here. Mods allow it because this trash is keeps it from being an “echo chamber” or some such nonsense.
Missing some key context:
FTA:
"Overall, 62 percent of Black voters indicated that they were “absolutely certain to vote” in November, a decline from the 74 percent of Black voters who made the same statement in June 2020.
However, among the youngest cohort of Black voters — aged 18 to 39 — only 41 percent said they were “absolutely certain to vote.” The number marked a steep decline from June 2020, when 61 percent of voters in this age group indicated that they were certain to vote.
Among young Black women, 39 percent of respondents said they were certain to vote this year, a sharp fall from the 69 percent who gave the same response in June 2020."
So, yeah, superficially it looks bad. The number of black voters saying they were almost certain to vote has dropped 12 points from 74% in 2020 to 62% today.
Among them, the number of young voters dropped 20 points from 61 to 41, and young women 30 points from 69 to 39.
Here’s the piece missing… In 2020 how many of them ACTUALLY voted?
Table A-6 from here:
64.7% of Blacks registered to vote in 2020.
58.7% actually voted.So 74% of blacks polled said they were certain to vote, but of the entire population? Yeah, nowhere near that number registered and even fewer actually voted.
In the black youth vote, in 2020, only 43% of black voters aged 18-29 turned up to vote, and 2020, thanks to covid, was the most accessible election in years.
https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/2020-youth-voter-turnout-raceethnicity-and-gender
So 61% said they were certain to vote, only 43% actually did. So it doesn’t really matter now that 41% say they are certain to vote.
I heard you could really easily galvanize the young Black vote by using AI to make some shoe photoes.
I think some people missed the trump shoes reference. I gotchoo
Don’t include the shoes… I heard Gen Z goes mad for feet pics! /s
(I don’t know why feet pics are Gen Z’s avocado toast, but I suddenly feel a lot better about being bombarded with avocado toast memes)
This is the best summary I could come up with:
In 2020, Black Americans were instrumental in sending President Joe Biden to the White House, buoying his candidacy not only in the Democratic primaries but in the general election.
Biden won 92 percent of the Black vote overall that year, while also easily winning millennials and Gen Z voters, according to the Pew Research Center.
But Biden in 2024 is facing the biggest challenge of his political career, as his campaign works to rev up enthusiasm among his 2020 supporters as many of them remain disenchanted about the economy, the conflict in Gaza, and setbacks on everything from voting-rights legislation to student-debt relief.
The number marked a steep decline from June 2020, when 61 percent of voters in this age group indicated that they were certain to vote.
Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, while older Black voters lined up behind Biden — a familiar face who was seen as a political moderate and had built up goodwill as President Barack Obama’s No.
Biden is working to boost enthusiasm among Democrats — but especially among young voters — as he touts his administration’s success in passing infrastructure legislation and its record of job creation.
The original article contains 513 words, the summary contains 197 words. Saved 62%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
