User visits and time spent on the social media platform normalize after traffic to Reddit briefly dipped last week during the blackout, according to SimilarWeb.
Most of the traffic of any given platform will be created by people who interact with it only passively; they mostly lurk and, for good or bad, they don’t care about it. Admins this, mods that, who the fuck cares, my cat pics sprout spontaneously from the internet.
In the meantime the people who actually contribute with the platform will be a tiny fraction of it. They don’t add traffic, but they add value - because they’re the ones responsible for creating the content (posting), aggregating value to the content (commenting), sorting the content (voting and moderating). The admins’ decisions and the mod revolts affected specially bad this group. And… well, not even the stupid like to be called stupid, and that’s basically what the admins did.
Now consider the link. The lurkers are back to Reddit because there’s still content to be consumed there, but eventually it’ll run dry - because the contributors are leaving the site. As such, you don’t expect the mod revolts to have a short-term impact on the site, but rather a long-term one: the site will become less and less popular over time, as the lurkers are looking for content there and… well, nobody is providing them jack shit. Eventually the site will be forgotten by the masses, just like Digg was.
So Reddit will die, mind you. But it won’t be a sudden death; it’ll be a slow bleeding.
I just wish that this process was slightly faster, specially before the IPO.
Thank you! (We need more content. Specially about other stuff than Reddit.)
That reminds me a caveat of the reasoning above: the “lurker” and “contributor” aren’t different people, but different interactions with a platform. Someone might be a lurker in one platform but a contributor, for example. The conclusion is still the same though, people avoid contributing to platforms that they feel to be hostile towards them.
The content will stay, at least in terms of posts. If the value-adders go to other sites, someone will just repost that value back to reddit.
It’ll devolve into something like instagram, where it’s literally impossible to discuss anything in the comments. Unfortunately that doesn’t mean they stop making money.
The content will stay, at least in terms of posts.
Content loses relevance over time, and becomes increasingly harder to retrieve as noise piles up: pointless threads, re-re-re-reposts, “marketing opportunities” (i.e. spam), so goes on. Reddit Inc.'s actions pissed off specially bad the people who were removing that noise - moderators.
someone will just repost that value back to reddit.
Usually you’d have the contributors doing this; the lurkers don’t care about sharing. But even if someone/something (AI) consistently keeps posting stuff from other platforms back into Reddit, those newer posts will be further removed from the original source, and they’ll arrive later. Reddit stops being the “front face of the internet” to become “yet another bottom feeder of the internet”.
where it’s literally impossible to discuss anything in the comments. Unfortunately that doesn’t mean they stop making money.
In Reddit’s case, I think that it does. Reddit might’ve started as a link aggregator, but its main value was as a forum platform. Without the ability to discuss anything deeper than “two plus two equals GOOD! EDIT WOW THANKS FOR THE GOLD, KIND STRANGER!@!11ONE”, it’s just yet another link aggregator again.
I agree and those reasons you listed are why I don’t have any issue parting ways with this platform, but I don’t think the general public does. People do use instagram and tiktok to view what I (and I’m guessing you do too) consider noise.
And after all, the general public is who views the ads on their site and brings in the money.
As someone who spends time curating the content I view without any care given to what other people enjoy, I’m often shocked at how terrible the content on something like youtube’s front page is when I get logged out. It’s easy to forget that a lot of people just don’t care and use the internet to turn off their brain.
You’re right that noise is subjective (it might be noise for one, content for another), but it’s only partially so. Most people don’t like old, repetitive or misplaced content; they don’t like spam either, so those things are almost always noise. And yet I think that they’ll become more and more common there over time.
You mentioned TikTok and Instagram; that’s less about noise vs. content and more about high quality vs. low quality. Plenty people have low standards, but even those prefer quality stuff; so once content quality drops down (I’m predicting that it will), they’ll have less reasons to look for content in Reddit instead of elsewhere.
Also, note that 47.58% of the traffic of the site is generated by “organic search”. Once creators are gone, those 47.58% are going away, too. They won’t be googling stuff like “how to shoot web site:reddit.com” if they know that Reddit will provide mostly junk results.
The comments by people consist of nothing but emojis and occasionally one to five words.
Scattered around that, you’ll also find a lot of bots spamming websites that either sell cheap stuff like LED lighting and swamp coolers with ridiculous markups (about 10x) or are straight up scams.
Those could be filtered out easily but instagram just cares more about the traffic than their users.
With moderators leaving en masse, reddit will move into that direction. They won’t ever get this shitty, but definitely a lot closer than they are now.
It’s not impossible, just inconvenient. Instagram was made to show off pictures, so when you open someone’s Instagram, all you see is a grid of pictures by default. If you want to read the captions and comment, you have to click on a pic and then click on the 💬 to view the comments and add your own. In a world where most places only make you click “send” to comment, it’s slightly more work than most people want for an online discussion.
eventually it’ll run dry - because the contributors are leaving the site
I somewhat disagree… you haven’t considered the increased incentive for occasional posters to become more regular contributors as existing contributors leave.
As the volume of contributions reduces, each contribution is more likely to garner engagement - those sweet sweet endorphins released when someone upvotes or otherwise engages with your post.
Even if it does, it doesn’t really matter if Reddit can become profitable.
It doesn’t really matter what we think but what the shitty capitalists bearing down on Reddit think. They clearly pushed for it to move into crypto and NFTs and I wouldn’t doubt if they push it to chase the next hype of AI. I wouldn’t doubt if the restrictions in the API are AI related and Reddit has lots of archived comments and posts to draw from.
Lots of people are probably just waiting for better apps for lemmy + the drop dead date for Reddit 3rd party apps. I am, anyway. I’d expect a shift in activity in July.
“Lots” in relation to the Lemmyverse size, but not in relation to the Reddit userbase. This chunk of the Fediverse grew huge in a single month, but it’s still considerably smaller than Reddit.
I read there are some issues with pre 0.18 versions of Lemmy with the latest versions of Jerboa. It should be fixed soon though, and an update as big as 0.18 for Lemmy should be rare in the future
There’s Thunder which is in the works, still missing some needed features for me, like media downloading, however it is decent for simple looking at Lemmy.
I agree in general with you, but AI adds a wrinkle. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if AI generated content continues to amuse the casual doomscrollers and reddit serves up a lot of ads to those mindless suckers and makes money for years with that model.
Doesn’t hurt us, though. We can move on and do our thing here in the Fediverse.
AI posting + low standards does throw a monkey wrench in my reasoning, but not a big one: that AI will be available first for Alphabet/Google, Microsoft and Meta/Facebook, as they’re the ones developing this stuff. And they happen to have services that overlap in functionality with Reddit, at least for people who are fine with AI-generated content.
No offence but I never understand this lurker hate.
Wasnt the hole idea of the web to have a website and be able to share your knowledge? Iam pretty sure that most people would just stop putting out content, if literally no one is reading it.
Just seems wrong to call those visitors of your publicly accessible site/blog/forum/whatever lurkers, or speak of them as if they would steal from your garden.
You’re assigning a connotation to the word that I don’t really agree with. There’s nothing wrong with being a lurker.
There’s encouragement to not be a lurker in the fediverse simply because engagement drives adoption and traffic, but I think the goal is ultimately to attract more lurkers
I think that it’s important to note the 1% rule.
Most of the traffic of any given platform will be created by people who interact with it only passively; they mostly lurk and, for good or bad, they don’t care about it. Admins this, mods that, who the fuck cares, my cat pics sprout spontaneously from the internet.
In the meantime the people who actually contribute with the platform will be a tiny fraction of it. They don’t add traffic, but they add value - because they’re the ones responsible for creating the content (posting), aggregating value to the content (commenting), sorting the content (voting and moderating). The admins’ decisions and the mod revolts affected specially bad this group. And… well, not even the stupid like to be called stupid, and that’s basically what the admins did.
Now consider the link. The lurkers are back to Reddit because there’s still content to be consumed there, but eventually it’ll run dry - because the contributors are leaving the site. As such, you don’t expect the mod revolts to have a short-term impact on the site, but rather a long-term one: the site will become less and less popular over time, as the lurkers are looking for content there and… well, nobody is providing them jack shit. Eventually the site will be forgotten by the masses, just like Digg was.
So Reddit will die, mind you. But it won’t be a sudden death; it’ll be a slow bleeding.
I just wish that this process was slightly faster, specially before the IPO.
This lurker won’t (trying to not lurk here). I am happy to get away from there, enough content (and better quality) is here.
Thank you! (We need more content. Specially about other stuff than Reddit.)
That reminds me a caveat of the reasoning above: the “lurker” and “contributor” aren’t different people, but different interactions with a platform. Someone might be a lurker in one platform but a contributor, for example. The conclusion is still the same though, people avoid contributing to platforms that they feel to be hostile towards them.
The content will stay, at least in terms of posts. If the value-adders go to other sites, someone will just repost that value back to reddit.
It’ll devolve into something like instagram, where it’s literally impossible to discuss anything in the comments. Unfortunately that doesn’t mean they stop making money.
Content loses relevance over time, and becomes increasingly harder to retrieve as noise piles up: pointless threads, re-re-re-reposts, “marketing opportunities” (i.e. spam), so goes on. Reddit Inc.'s actions pissed off specially bad the people who were removing that noise - moderators.
Usually you’d have the contributors doing this; the lurkers don’t care about sharing. But even if someone/something (AI) consistently keeps posting stuff from other platforms back into Reddit, those newer posts will be further removed from the original source, and they’ll arrive later. Reddit stops being the “front face of the internet” to become “yet another bottom feeder of the internet”.
In Reddit’s case, I think that it does. Reddit might’ve started as a link aggregator, but its main value was as a forum platform. Without the ability to discuss anything deeper than “two plus two equals GOOD! EDIT WOW THANKS FOR THE GOLD, KIND STRANGER!@!11ONE”, it’s just yet another link aggregator again.
I agree and those reasons you listed are why I don’t have any issue parting ways with this platform, but I don’t think the general public does. People do use instagram and tiktok to view what I (and I’m guessing you do too) consider noise.
And after all, the general public is who views the ads on their site and brings in the money.
As someone who spends time curating the content I view without any care given to what other people enjoy, I’m often shocked at how terrible the content on something like youtube’s front page is when I get logged out. It’s easy to forget that a lot of people just don’t care and use the internet to turn off their brain.
You’re right that noise is subjective (it might be noise for one, content for another), but it’s only partially so. Most people don’t like old, repetitive or misplaced content; they don’t like spam either, so those things are almost always noise. And yet I think that they’ll become more and more common there over time.
You mentioned TikTok and Instagram; that’s less about noise vs. content and more about high quality vs. low quality. Plenty people have low standards, but even those prefer quality stuff; so once content quality drops down (I’m predicting that it will), they’ll have less reasons to look for content in Reddit instead of elsewhere.
Also, note that 47.58% of the traffic of the site is generated by “organic search”. Once creators are gone, those 47.58% are going away, too. They won’t be googling stuff like “how to shoot web site:reddit.com” if they know that Reddit will provide mostly junk results.
Never used Instagram; why is it impossible to discuss anything there?
The comments by people consist of nothing but emojis and occasionally one to five words.
Scattered around that, you’ll also find a lot of bots spamming websites that either sell cheap stuff like LED lighting and swamp coolers with ridiculous markups (about 10x) or are straight up scams.
Those could be filtered out easily but instagram just cares more about the traffic than their users.
With moderators leaving en masse, reddit will move into that direction. They won’t ever get this shitty, but definitely a lot closer than they are now.
It’s not impossible, just inconvenient. Instagram was made to show off pictures, so when you open someone’s Instagram, all you see is a grid of pictures by default. If you want to read the captions and comment, you have to click on a pic and then click on the 💬 to view the comments and add your own. In a world where most places only make you click “send” to comment, it’s slightly more work than most people want for an online discussion.
Hey, the repost bots will still be there :-D !
I somewhat disagree… you haven’t considered the increased incentive for occasional posters to become more regular contributors as existing contributors leave.
As the volume of contributions reduces, each contribution is more likely to garner engagement - those sweet sweet endorphins released when someone upvotes or otherwise engages with your post.
Even if it does, it doesn’t really matter if Reddit can become profitable.
It doesn’t really matter what we think but what the shitty capitalists bearing down on Reddit think. They clearly pushed for it to move into crypto and NFTs and I wouldn’t doubt if they push it to chase the next hype of AI. I wouldn’t doubt if the restrictions in the API are AI related and Reddit has lots of archived comments and posts to draw from.
Lots of people are probably just waiting for better apps for lemmy + the drop dead date for Reddit 3rd party apps. I am, anyway. I’d expect a shift in activity in July.
“Lots” in relation to the Lemmyverse size, but not in relation to the Reddit userbase. This chunk of the Fediverse grew huge in a single month, but it’s still considerably smaller than Reddit.
Any lemmy apps coming out? Found one but it doesn’t stay open.
Sync for Lemmy is in the work and a first working Beta should come out in 3 - 6 Weeks.
Thank you
Jerboa for android and Mlem for iOS are already out and getting better everyday!
I cant seem to get jerboa to work - keeps closing just after opening
I read there are some issues with pre 0.18 versions of Lemmy with the latest versions of Jerboa. It should be fixed soon though, and an update as big as 0.18 for Lemmy should be rare in the future
Thank you - ill keep it installed
Using Jerboa right know. I kinda like it, but compared to Relay for Reddit and so on, it’s of course not as polished.
Give it the decade+ that Relay has had to be developed and I bet Jerboa will be really awesome :)
There’s Thunder which is in the works, still missing some needed features for me, like media downloading, however it is decent for simple looking at Lemmy.
I agree in general with you, but AI adds a wrinkle. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if AI generated content continues to amuse the casual doomscrollers and reddit serves up a lot of ads to those mindless suckers and makes money for years with that model.
Doesn’t hurt us, though. We can move on and do our thing here in the Fediverse.
AI posting + low standards does throw a monkey wrench in my reasoning, but not a big one: that AI will be available first for Alphabet/Google, Microsoft and Meta/Facebook, as they’re the ones developing this stuff. And they happen to have services that overlap in functionality with Reddit, at least for people who are fine with AI-generated content.
No offence but I never understand this lurker hate.
Wasnt the hole idea of the web to have a website and be able to share your knowledge? Iam pretty sure that most people would just stop putting out content, if literally no one is reading it.
Just seems wrong to call those visitors of your publicly accessible site/blog/forum/whatever lurkers, or speak of them as if they would steal from your garden.
You’re assigning a connotation to the word that I don’t really agree with. There’s nothing wrong with being a lurker.
There’s encouragement to not be a lurker in the fediverse simply because engagement drives adoption and traffic, but I think the goal is ultimately to attract more lurkers