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Cake day: June 21st, 2023

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  • You don’t need to poll everyone to get relatively accurate polling results.

    I have a related degree, it is possible with the necessary caveats, margins of error and confidence intervals. Statistics is a wonderful thing.

    This being said, I actually read the full 77 page document they linked to, and if I’m not mistaken the 55% comes from a 2021 telephone poll. Obviously phone only polls are likely to be biased, even if you correct for demographic factors like age.

    Then again, inflation is a problem.


  • I have a related degree.

    The study was conducted for CNN via web and telephone on the SSRS Opinion Panel, a nationally representative panel of U.S. adults ages 18 or older recruited using probability-based sampling techniques.

    BUT…

    In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.

    Relevant bit:

    Unless otherwise noted, results beginning with the August 3-6, 2017 survey and ending with the April 21-26, 2021 survey are from polls conducted by SSRS via telephone only

    TLDR: doubt those polls are representative.