I don’t know a single person voting Nats but my gut feeling is they will get it. And likely not by a huge margin, meaning Nat-Act govt likely.
ITT no discussing why X should or shouldn’t be in, just your predictions.
Also, is it illegal to bet on elections?
True, a minority govt with Winston on confidence & supply is an option too. Probably not especially viable though.
Unfortunately it would (given it is Winston after all) be the other way round Labour-NZF minority gov with TPM & Greens for confidence and supply