Image is of fires in northern Israel set off by Hezbollah, to force settlers to retreat from their occupied areas, in response to attacks on civilians in Lebanon.

I’m not gonna lie to you - I thought Israel would have started shit with Hezbollah by now which would have derailed whatever megathread theme I had planned, so I didn’t bother planning one.

If you want a decent couple pieces going over what Hezbollah has done to Israel, then have a look at How ‘Israel’ Has Lost The North and Hezbollah’s Quarterly Report. It’s not exactly the most professional analysis, as you’ll see if you read it, but it gets the point across and relies on evidence. In essence, Hezbollah has pushed the Israelis back tens of kilometers and decimated their border infrastructure, all while unveiling anti-aircraft missiles that have forced Israel to reconsider bombing runs. They still probably have the ability to turn various towns and cities in Lebanon to rubble, but Hezbollah can do massive damage back to Israel in turn. This has gone on so long with so little meaningful opposition by Israel that border settlements are going a little haywire and tentatively declaring independence from Israel and saying they don’t want IDF troops there anymore. I don’t take these terribly seriously from a military standpoint but it is indicative of the Zionist settler mindset crumbling over the last 9 months.

We’re now at the point where Israel kinda has to go to war against Hezbollah or the entire Zionist ideology of military deterrence and expansion via illegal settlements simply no longer functions, but that war will also lead to massive destruction for military and civilian facilities (ports, power stations, war factories, etc) which is a massive problem for Israel’s continued existence. Hamas continues to function inside Gaza despite the surface occupation of significant areas, including the Gaza-Egypt border, and attrition there is leading to big materiel and psychological losses for Israel too. And Yemen has, for all intents and purposes, prevailed against America’s failed attempt to thwart their blockade - with some in the army claiming it’s the most intense naval battle America has faced since WW2 - and missile strikes are tentatively beginning to hit or at least threaten ships in the Mediterranean Sea.

Nukes are still lurking quietly in the background, of course, but the Resistance is perfectly aware of that and still seems confident to go ahead with operations, so I can’t really do anything but shrug and say that I trust them to do what’s right.

The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you’ve wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don’t worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Lebanon! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • Droplet [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    34·
    3 days ago

    Nuclear take: we’re going to see a nuclear explosion before November. Not a huge explosion, but probably a low yield tactical nuke used on an area that minimizes casualties.

    That’s going to change the political discourse completely.

    • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
      32·
      2 days ago

      Every nuclear power monitors each others nuclear assets, there is no credible way the US can say Russia launched a nuke without clear evidence corroborated by every other nuclear power. Its not like Iraq WMD where you can hold a picture and say Russia did it, not an actual fake nuclear attack.

      The US certainly wont use that themselves, I think there are hardliners in the actual military that take MAD somewhat seriously and wouldn’t dare it. Keep in mind if the US detonates a nuke in Ukraine that may cause Russia to think its under nuclear attack themselves and with a few minutes to make a call and a history of close calls throughout the 20th century, this is could just result in Russia nuking the US. I think there is enough “institutional” knowledge in the US military to know its not worth to sacrifice themselves for their “subjects”. Why would the US risk WW3 with Russia to save “temporarily white” Ukrainians?

      Israel is a completely different level because nobody there can retaliate against the US. This has always been the key point.

      So the only alternative is some dirty bomb in Ukraine but Ukraine already tried to attack the ZNPP and at this point they can’t do it even if they wanted to. But if somehow they manage to create something with US assistance it still wont move the needle anywhere.

      Russia still has credible deniability, they have no excuse to use a nuke now that they’re convincingly winning and even lib mainstream admits it. As for Russian leadership they know they’ve won the war and its a matter of time now.

      I don’t believe there is anything that would force them to escalate except an actual NATO intervention.

    • IceWallowCum [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
      14·
      2 days ago

      This got me thinking… The major players either have nukes or ways to defend themselves against them, and I don’t imagine it’s easy/cheap to replace intercepted nukes.

      What would a contemporary use of nukes even look like? Targeting your opponent’s colonies? Scaring people from neighbouring countries into becoming refugees?

      • Droplet [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
        8·
        2 days ago

        As others have said, there is no such thing as a comprehensive nuclear defense system. Everyone is vulnerable.

        The real question is how would the opposite side react? The MAD deterrence has never been broken. This is truly uncharted territory.

        Let’s say the US (through the Ukrainian Armed Forces) uses a low yield nuke on a village in Russia-occupied Ukraine. 10 people are killed. How would Russia respond? Unload the rest of its nuclear arsenals against American cities? Retaliate against an American village? How would things escalate from there? I don’t think anybody can predict what would happen, which is what makes the entire scenario so scary.

        But one thing for sure is that the world is going to change overnight. Its significance would likely exceed 9/11, when everyone would be so shocked that they could still recall what they were doing at the very moment the news came on even decades later.

        • Droplet [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
          7·
          2 days ago

          Reagan tried that with the Star Wars program while turned out to be a complete disaster but it did drive the USSR into overspending their defense budget and overstretching their economy.

      • somename [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
        9·
        2 days ago

        I don’t think that’s true at all. There’s no way to intercept an IBCM in its terminal phase. They are incredibly fast on reentry. You have to hit it just after launch, or not at all. They are still just as dangerous as they’ve always been.

      • D61 [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
        7·
        2 days ago

        Other nuke launch sites, large military installations of people/equipment, any central nodes for intelligence gathering or communications, a country’s capital would be a big one, any massed troops in a geographical choke point, mmaaayyyybbbbbeee even going after some rare natural resource by hitting a mine or important water way.

    • D61 [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
      6·
      2 days ago

      If I absolutely have to bet money on this, it will be something stupid like a nuclear land/sea mine.

      • Droplet [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
        23·
        3 days ago

        It’s a nuclear take which means the chances of it happening is extremely slim. No need to worry lol. I just like saying shit to provoke discussions.

        • iridaniotter [she/her, they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
          16·
          2 days ago

          If we’re giving nuclear takes then I predict Sweden secretly restarted its nuclear program (yes it actually had one in like the 50s or 60s) in 2022. A nuclear first strike against Norway and Denmark is imminent. Long live the Swedish Empire!

    • Alaskaball [comrade/them]@hexbear.netMEnglish
      23·
      3 days ago

      My nuclear take is that the nuclear event is the ZNPP gets hit with American munitions that manage to hit enough of the right shit to cause a meltdown and turns the black earth of Ukraine into a contaminated mess

          • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
            17·
            2 days ago

            The only thing that would achieve is to make EU more racist towards migrants and shit. There is nothing to be gained by anyone for doing this. Also Nordstream happened exactly because it is a strategic asset in a remote area only monitored by military and some government assets and not even completely 100% all the time. At the end of the day nobody even got injured and everyone can happily pretend to look away.

            The idea that the US could use a dirty bomb in a EU capital and potentialy kill 6-7 figures is just on a completely different level of illuminati conspiracy.

          • Droplet [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
            6·
            2 days ago

            It’s not a bit. I follow readouts from the Russian MoD closely.

            This is from Tuesday, June 25th RTVI

            Russian Defense Ministry: Components for creating a “dirty bomb” are being imported to Ukraine

            Spent nuclear fuel and waste from hazardous chemical production facilities are being imported to Ukraine, which could be used to create a “dirty bomb.” This was stated during a briefing on June 25 by Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, Chief of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defense (RCBD) Troops of the Russian Armed Forces.

            According to him, the Russian military department has operational information about the import to Ukraine “for subsequent disposal” of radiochemical substances, which “turn the country into a dumping ground for spent nuclear fuel and waste from hazardous chemical production.”

            “The main supply routes are organized through Poland and Romania. At the same time, organizational, logistics and financial issues are personally supervised by the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andrey Ermak,” Kirillov said.

            He claims that “these substances can be used to create a so-called ‘dirty bomb’.” It could then be used “under a false flag,” Kirillov added.

            This is not the first time that Russia has said that Ukraine could allegedly resort to using a “dirty bomb” (usually this term refers to the most technically simple type of radiological weapon. — RTVI note).

            In particular, in October 2022 , the then Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that Ukraine could be preparing a provocation using a “dirty bomb”.

            At the time, the RIA Novosti news agency claimed that the purpose of such a provocation was to accuse Russia of using weapons of mass destruction “and thereby launch a powerful anti-Russian campaign in the world aimed at undermining trust in Moscow.”

            Washington feared that in the fall of 2022, Moscow was deliberately disseminating information about Ukraine’s plans to use a “dirty bomb.” The White House did not rule out that Russia wanted to use these accusations against Ukraine as a pretext for launching a nuclear strike. This was reported in March by CNN, which noted that at the end of that year the United States began “thorough preparations” for a possible Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine.

            Also on Tuesday, the Russia MoD announced that they detected an increase of US military-biological presence in Africa:

            “The documents at our disposal confirm that the US military-biological presence on the African continent is growing at a rapid pace,” [Igor Kirillov, Chief of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops (RCVZ) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation] said.

            He noted that the department had noted the activities of key Pentagon contractors on the African continent - in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Cameroon, Uganda and South Africa. The customers on the part of the American government are the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DITRA) and the State Department.

            …

            As Kirillov clarified, these are not all initiatives on the African continent.

            “I would like to once again remind you of Washington’s non-transparent methods of work and warn our African partners against cooperation with the United States in the military-biological sphere. As practice shows, such interaction results in the loss of national sovereignty in the sphere of biosecurity and the worsening of the disease situation. Examples include infections such as yellow fever, monkeypox and Rift Valley fever, an outbreak of which was recorded in Cairo, where the US Navy’s military-biological laboratory was located,” Kirillov concluded.

            At the same time, dual-use research and disregard for biosafety standards have led to a worsening of the infectious disease situation in the United States itself.

            There has been a ramping up of radiological and biological weapons activity from the US recently. They’re planning something. Clearly enough for Russia to raise its concerns.