I’m not surprised that it didn’t launch in 2023, but I am surprised it was cancelled entirely. I wonder if the Polaris program would ever do something similar?
Maybe. Smarter Every Day on YT had a couple of uploads where he implied that SpaceX’s lack of commitments and schedules or even proof of critical technology was a major problem for Artemis and all other phases of the program. There probably isn’t time for everything else.
Destin has too much of a Huntsville bias. Listening to old heads wax poetic about Apollo and how things “should be” or whatever then complaining about Starship is totally missing the point of Artemis and the roots of its issues. SLS and Orion couldn’t be much worse if they tried, and NASA was way too late on contracting HLS and suits. And a rover. And a hab. It isn’t SpaceX’s fault that their pie in the sky idea that was RFQ’ed way too late is too big and complicated for what Artemis 3 needs.
The first Polaris mission is on an existing proven vehicle and the suits look to be in the final stages. It seems to have taken a lot longer than anticipated but I don’t know if cancellation is likely. If aspects look too difficult they can alter the mission. The risk for the later Polaris Starship program is that Starship gets stuck in development hell which is still very possible.
There have been a number of tech companies that produced very successful and innovative products only to run into a brick wall with a successor product that was too ambitious or made wrong choices and either never made it to market or arrived too late.
The booster, raptor engines and launch infrastructure have been impressive and a lot of fun to watch but now we get to re-entry, full and rapid re-use, orbital refueling etc and the risks of a serious roadblock that eats all the cash and time increases in my opinion. I think it is great that companies are literally pursuing moonshot projects but we have to manage expectations.
I’m not surprised that it didn’t launch in 2023, but I am surprised it was cancelled entirely. I wonder if the Polaris program would ever do something similar?
Maybe. Smarter Every Day on YT had a couple of uploads where he implied that SpaceX’s lack of commitments and schedules or even proof of critical technology was a major problem for Artemis and all other phases of the program. There probably isn’t time for everything else.
Destin has too much of a Huntsville bias. Listening to old heads wax poetic about Apollo and how things “should be” or whatever then complaining about Starship is totally missing the point of Artemis and the roots of its issues. SLS and Orion couldn’t be much worse if they tried, and NASA was way too late on contracting HLS and suits. And a rover. And a hab. It isn’t SpaceX’s fault that their pie in the sky idea that was RFQ’ed way too late is too big and complicated for what Artemis 3 needs.
The first Polaris mission is on an existing proven vehicle and the suits look to be in the final stages. It seems to have taken a lot longer than anticipated but I don’t know if cancellation is likely. If aspects look too difficult they can alter the mission. The risk for the later Polaris Starship program is that Starship gets stuck in development hell which is still very possible.
There have been a number of tech companies that produced very successful and innovative products only to run into a brick wall with a successor product that was too ambitious or made wrong choices and either never made it to market or arrived too late.
The booster, raptor engines and launch infrastructure have been impressive and a lot of fun to watch but now we get to re-entry, full and rapid re-use, orbital refueling etc and the risks of a serious roadblock that eats all the cash and time increases in my opinion. I think it is great that companies are literally pursuing moonshot projects but we have to manage expectations.