I asked GPT-4 for a list of the most important threats to human civilization, their likelihood, and why they were considered threats.
GPT’s output is also pasted into the comments.
Of these, I feel like climate change, a meteor, and nuclear war are really the only viable existential threats, and even climate change will most likely not destroy humanity wholly, although what’s left may not be worth living in.
Yeah, people are sleeping on biodiversity loss. That one is going to come out of “nowhere” even though there are fewer birds in the sky now than when I was a kid.
Yes to me even a 70% chance of it happening seems low. Seems to me like the probability of it is 100%
Absolutely:
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Climate Change (70 - 80%):
- Rising sea levels causing coastal city displacement.
- More frequent and severe natural disasters, such as hurricanes and wildfires.
- Agricultural disruptions leading to food shortages.
- Climate-induced migrations causing geopolitical tensions.
- Ocean acidification damaging marine ecosystems.
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Nuclear Warfare (5 - 10%):
- Immediate loss of life from blast and thermal radiation.
- Long-term radiation exposure causing health issues and deaths.
- Nuclear winter, severely impacting global climate and agriculture.
- Societal collapse due to infrastructural damage.
- Contamination of natural resources.
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Pandemics (40 - 50%):
- Massive loss of life and strain on healthcare systems.
- Economic downturns due to lockdowns and decreased consumer confidence.
- Disruptions in global trade and supply chains.
- Increased mental health issues due to isolation and stress.
- Reduced mobility leading to cultural and educational setbacks.
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Artificial Intelligence Misuse (20 - 30%):
- Loss of jobs due to unchecked automation.
- Misinformation campaigns undermining democratic processes.
- Unintended consequences from AI decisions in critical systems.
- Surveillance and privacy concerns.
- AI-driven cyber-attacks.
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Biodiversity Loss (60 - 70%):
- Disruption of ecosystems, leading to loss of services they provide.
- Increased vulnerability to pests and diseases.
- Reduced agricultural productivity and food security.
- Loss of medicinal resources and potential discoveries.
- Negative impact on cultural and recreational values.
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Economic Collapse (20 - 25%):
- Mass unemployment and reduced quality of life.
- Collapse of essential services and infrastructure.
- Increased crime rates and social unrest.
- Potential for political upheavals and radicalization.
- Long-term stagnation and reduced global cooperation.
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Asteroid Impact (0.01 - 0.1%):
- Immediate loss of life from impact event.
- Global climate changes due to debris and soot.
- Disruption of global food chains leading to famines.
- Economic collapses due to widespread infrastructure damage.
- Potential for long-term ecological and atmospheric disturbances.
-
Geomagnetic Storms (10 - 15%):
- Widespread power outages and grid failures.
- Disruption of satellite communication and navigation systems.
- Economic losses due to infrastructure damage.
- Potential aviation hazards.
- Disruption in digital communication networks.
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Resource Depletion (40 - 50%):
- Increased prices leading to economic strain.
- Potential for geopolitical conflicts over resources.
- Reduced quality of life due to scarcity.
- Environmental degradation from over-extraction.
- Societal tensions and potential migrations due to resource inequalities.
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Political Instability (30 - 40%):
- Regional conflicts potentially escalating to global wars.
- Disruptions in global trade and diplomatic relations.
- Mass migrations and refugee crises.
- Economic downturns and potential resource hoarding.
- Erosion of democratic values and human rights.
.
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The idea is to start a discussion of what the accurate answer is
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Well it means something. Maybe it doesn’t mean that it’s true, but it means something about what comes out.
I mostly assume this is what it’s read in a huge number of articles and blog posts.
It’s regurgitating it here. Like querying a big opinion pool, using questions as the query language. It’s just rewriting passages in its own words to cobble together a report on whatever I ask it, which is fine for my purposes.
I realize the percentages are probably just the percentages various people came up with, and that’s fine with me too.
My intention with the prompt here isn’t so much “predict the future” as it is “summarize current thinking”.
Like when I ask it to tell me organic chemistry. I know it’s just reporting what it read.
It has drastically overstated the likelihood of a globally catastrophic impact from space.
A devastating regional impact is estimated to occur once every 10,000 to 100,000 years. Note that’s regional not global.
There has only been one of any significance in all of recorded history that I’m aware of, which fortunately took place in an uninhabited region of Siberia.
Search for Torino Scale if you’re interested in learning more about how they estimate and categorize these threats.