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Joined 9 months ago
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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • I’m not sure that’s correct. 538 was always a polling aggregator, but people treated it like 60% chance means “for sure.” I think what we’re now seeing is we don’t actually have much good polling data due to extremism, and therefore sites like 538 aren’t as valuable.

    I distinctly remember Silver refused to make a prediction on who would win in 2016 because he insisted that Trump’s 33% odds according to 538 meant there was a very real chance of a Trump victory. But everyone came out an blamed Silver for calling it wrong.

    I don’t actually like the guy, I think his analysis and political savvy is pretty weak and he comes off as incredibly arrogant. But he literally just runs a weighted data aggregator. So if the data is bad, his results will be bad too.

















  • The US didn’t sign on to the treaty that creates the ICC’s jurisdiction. In most countries, you still need to at least pretend to have jurisdiction to bring criminal charges. Unlike people, states can only be sued to the degree they consent to be sued. It’s what sovereign immunity is based on and it’s a very double-edged sword.

    Also, outside of a few warlords, the ICC is pretty bad at enforcing international law because they have no way to do so. The ICC is inefficient and slow. Someone has to actually bring the defendant to them to stand trial, then countries negotiate over who doesn’t have to deal with jailing the person if they’re convicted.

    It’s also arguably super imperialist, given that it was designed by a bunch of Western powers and has mostly been used to enforce international law against individuals from Africa. The two Russians who are being “prosecuted,” Putin and Lvova-Belova, can’t be detained because the ICC has no power to enforce their warrants. Granted, these people are often evil, but it’s not like the West doesn’t have its fair share of evil people.

    All that to say, while this looks good, it’s mostly just PR. We also arguably don’t want the ICC prosecuting Americans. We should instead make our domestic system better.

    Source: Used to work on analyzing ICC cases and I’ve read thousands of filings from various cases. It’s a well-intentioned but highly flawed system that is basically only designed to prosecute international crimes in Africa and doesn’t really focus on anything else.